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Using the OODA Loop to Reduce Uncertainty in Your Business

With the arrival of new technologies and new industry disruptions, it’s easy for us to feel the pressure, not only to adapt but also to leverage these new technologies in our favor. Industry disruption forces us to confront new challenges and also provides us with an opportunity to carve out innovative success in the face of change.  

 

Even as the complexity of the world continues to accelerate, inaction is a sure way to get left behind. 

 

So, how do we shape our external strategies to leverage the power of uncertainty?

 

The OODA (Observe→Orient→Decide→Act) loop is an iterative decision-making tool that has been used by companies such as Amazon to disrupt competitors and navigate through uncertainty and change.

 

For those who are familiar with the OODA loop, you know its potential to revolutionize decision-making and problem-solving. For those encountering it for the first time, get ready to embark on a journey that will transform the way you navigate uncertainty and disruption. 

 

The OODA loop can help us adapt our strategies, respond effectively to challenges, and make better decisions faster.

 

One of my mentors taught me a phrase that I now use to help orient experimentation in my work. My mentor taught me that our goal for almost every decision should be: “Good enough for now, safe enough to try.” 

 

The OODA loop is a fantastic tool to support that. 

 

I wrote a few weeks back about disruption from AI. Here’s what I said:

 

External shifts [from generative AI] lead to internal disruptions within companies, necessitating changes in structure and management approaches that are required in response to industry pressures and competitive shifts. 

In the face of such a disruptive force, it’s easy to succumb to overwhelm, uncertainty, and a doom-and-gloom worldview. 

 

That’s the first benefit of the OODA loop—it gives you a decision-making framework that helps reduce overwhelm, uncertainty, and a doom-and-gloom worldview.

 

This is how it works:

 

  • Observe —  The first step is to actively observe and acknowledge new data, challenges, or changing conditions. We see what’s going on, whether with our competitors or in the world in general. In this case, it’s that Generative AI has landed on the scene in an easy-to-use and practical way. It is important not to ignore or push away uncomfortable observations.

 

  • Orient — The next step is to orient oneself to the observed information. This involves relating the observation to existing strategies, values, and mental models. It requires updating one’s understanding of the situation and considering how it fits into the overall context. We see what’s out there and what others are saying and doing. We think about our core strategy and how this new technology will affect it.We also draw on our values, our worldview, and our goals. If I run a SaaS company, my reaction to a new technology is going to be different than if I run a law firm that bills clients hourly.

 

  • Decide — Once oriented, a decision is made based on observation and orientation. This decision should align with the goals, strategies, and values of the individual or organization. It should consider the potential impact and implications of the decision. Are we going to train people in a new way? Are we going to shift our billing model? Develop a different kind of product?It’s time to devise a plan.

 

  • Act — The decision is put into action, and the necessary steps are taken to implement it. This stage involves executing the chosen course of action and initiating the necessary changes or measures.

  

But — recognize that this is not the end of our process. 

 

We immediately begin observing what’s happened in response to our action—so we’re back at the start of the loop right away. 

 

 


If you are facing impactful challenges and need to make sense of your changing environment, or if you’re someone who’s leading change within your organization, watch the full video:
Understanding the OODA Loop, and book a free 30-minute call with me to learn more about how to use this framework to lead change with ease across your organization.

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Rise of the Machines: How to Keep AI from Terminating Your Business

The era of machine learning is upon us, whether we want it or not. Every week provides us with new stories about developments in artificial intelligence, and new fears regarding its implications for us.

 

Driverless cars! Authorless stories! Cyber lawyers!

 

From the spectacular arrival of AI art programs like Midjourney and DALL-E to the even more earth-shattering evolution of ChatGPT, it is hard to imagine any industry being able to escape disruption by the inevitable rise of the machines.

 

Chatbots are passing the bar exam, helping students cheat, and assisting us in planning our travel itineraries. They can be taught to code, taught to order our favorite foods when we need them, they can even (terrifyingly) be taught to love.

 
Disruptions Happen.
 

The birth of AI is a thrilling but frightening thing to behold. Even in its early stages, we are already witnessing capabilities that seemed like pure sci-fi less than a decade ago, and its rate of evolution is so rapid it is almost impossible to predict where we will be ten years from now.

 

The legal industry is undergoing significant changes, with AI and legal chatbots being employed in contract review, drafting, dispute resolution, and predictive analytics.

 

These external shifts lead to internal disruptions within companies, necessitating changes in structure and management approaches that are required in response to industry pressures and competitive shifts. 

 

In the face of such a disruptive force, it’s easy to succumb to overwhelm, uncertainty, and a doom-and-gloom worldview. 

 

With artificial intelligence disrupting our industries, and even our art, what will be left for us to do? 

 

You may be left questioning:

 

As a senior leader, how can I prevent the introduction of AI from making my company defunct within my industry? What does it mean for my team and for the way we do business now?

 

The good news is, although we are approaching uncharted territory now, we have been in uncharted territory many times before, and while there are always winners and losers, agile actors find ways to rise to the top during times of disruption and upheaval. Less than thirty years ago, the internet came along and disrupted business as usual, as did the inventions of the personal computer and the pocket calculator before that, all the way back to 1450 AD and the invention of the printing press!

 

The Bleeding Edge

 

E-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Etsy, and Shopify continue to disrupt traditional retail, with Amazon using data from their operations to manufacture generic products, creating a unique feedback loop. To compete, some major retailers, like Walmart and Target built out robust online stores to coexist alongside their brick-and-mortar locations. Other companies, like Bed Bath and Beyond failed to capitalize on the growing market for online sales and are now paying the price. 

 

Entertainment and media were revolutionized by streaming services like Netflix, which brought movies directly to our TVs—often simultaneously with theatrical releases. This new business model brought about the end of the video store era and began to threaten the bottom line of many film studios and TV networks. Desperate to capitalize on the streaming market, or to hang on to as much of their IP as possible, networks like ABC and NBC are now hosting their own platforms, offering subscribers now-exclusive content that could previously be found on Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon Prime.

 

External shifts lead to internal disruptions within companies, necessitating changes in structure and management approaches that are required in response to industry pressures and competitive shifts. 

 

The point isn’t to resist that disruption is happening—it’s to learn how to work with it and how to get ahead of things. The strongest leaders are the ones who will be able to lead their organizations through the change of creative disruption. 

 

Facing the Unknown

 

GPT epitomizes the classical definition of disruptive innovation. It is inexpensive, often “good enough,” and has deep expertise in certain content areas. It is poised to revolutionize how we work with and process electronic data. If we want to stay relevant in our respective industries, we cannot run from the future, we need to learn how to embrace it.

 

To thrive amid disruption you need to understand resistance.

 

By paying attention to what’s disrupting your industry and learning to work with it skillfully, you can set yourself and your organization up for longevity and success. One of the key skills you need to succeed amid disruption is the ability to share what you see and work more skillfully with others’ resistance. 

 

By getting better at working with resistance, you’ll be able to react and respond to it more quickly. You’ll work with more ease—having fun instead of banging your head against the wall. And you’ll stand out as someone who’s able to lead your organization forward in challenging times.

 

I work with a lot of clients who I consider “visionary.” This doesn’t mean that they want to live on Mars (but boy does that guy need some support at keeping his stuff together), but it does mean that they see things about their organizations that others don’t see. A lot of these people start by swimming upstream—but there are techniques they can use.

 

Because leading through disruption is a team sport—it’s not something you can do alone, no matter how much power you have—you’ll have to bring others on the journey. 

 

Here are three things you might try if your team needs help adapting to new, “disruptive” tech:

  

  • Show Cause – If your folks can’t see the challenge that new technologies and ways of operating pose, they won’t be prepared to work with you on solutions. By paying attention to what’s disrupting your industry and learning how to point it out and explain the issue in easy-to-understand terms, you can set yourself and your organization up for longevity and success.
  • Start Small – I’m often talking with my clients about the minimum meaningful unit of experiment: the need to try a change on the smallest unit where you can gather meaningful data and get meaningful results.

    As you learn, you can go bigger, but changes that start big—especially in a fast-moving environment—often fail.
  • Listen Deeply Most leaders’ default approach to resistance is to try and overcome it, to get buy-in or, if that fails, to mandate that others comply with the change.

    “I know you don’t like this, but you have to sell it to your team. Eat your vegetables. They’re good for you. You’ll learn to like them.”


    This kind of power-based approach to getting things done has a place, but not when you need to change how you operate. Instead of trying to overcome resistance, engage with it.
    Start by using
    curiosity.

    “Here’s what I’m seeing; what are you seeing?”

    This approach creates the opportunity for a true dialogue, which builds relationships and enables you to lead others on their journey.

By getting better at working with resistance, you’ll be able to react and respond to it more quickly. You’ll work with more ease—because you’ll be having fun instead of banging your head against the wall, and you’ll stand out as someone who’s able to lead your organization forward into new frontiers.

 

If you’re someone who wants to lead your organization through all the changes that are required these days, start by engaging with the resistance you meet.

 

Learning to engage with resistance isn’t easy—it’s one of things I spend a lot of time coaching my clients through. But if you want a head start, check out this free short video: Understanding the Levels of Resistance.

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